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Apr 7, 2009

Triple By-Elections, My Early Predictions….

N25 Bukit Selambau:

Indians vote will slightly lean towards Barisan Nasional, Chinese remain as the same and Malays vote seems like swinging to Pakatan Rakyat. With the political ploy by new PM to release 2 out of 5 HINDRAF leaders it’s going to small effect to the Indians vote. Tuk Guru Nik Aziz’s turnout in Bukit Selambau very much attracted all Bukit Selambau voters generally.

So Pakatan Rakyat going to win 3000 votes to 4000 votes majority in Bukit Selambau.


P59 Bukit Gantang

Malays are “kingmaker” in this constituency. But non-Malays still the decider since Malays vote in this area always 50-50. With the sympathies created by PAS candidate Mohd Nizar Jamaluddin using the “back door government” issues of Barisan Nasional, the hopes for Pakatan Rakyat are very much bright. Non-Malay voters were swung towards Pakatan Rakyat in the march 8 GE and I’m sure that they are still behind the Pakatan Rakyat. Nizar have thousands of strong reason to woo the voters to vote for him, while BN hungry for the issue in Bukit Gantang election campaign.

It’s going to be easy win for Pakatan Rakyat with the majority of 5000 to 7000 votes.


N29 Batang Ai

The toughest fight among the tri-elections is here. BN and PR realise that both of them have almost equal opportunity to win the seat, they pushed hard to wrestle the seat during the 10 days campaigning period. More than 90% voters of Batang Ai are Ibans. Barisan Nasional has the advantages of exploiting media to retain the seat. Ibans access the information through traditional media such as RTM1, RTM2 and Radio Sarawak. So no ways for blogs and Pakatan Rakyat news reach the voters directly.

Barisan Nasional still has the capability to win the seat despite the tough fight given by Pakatan Rakyat. In Batang Ai, BN going to win around 500 votes.

10 comments:

nami o fish said...

What a pundit.

Well,based on my pundit,meanwhile shows different.

There are independent candidate(s) in both bukits.13 in Silambau and 1 in Gantang.Although we can say it will not significantly effects the result,however,I suggest we must concern people that with no political stands or simply on the fence.One of them may have tendency to vote one of them.

What do you think?

vasantarao appalasamy said...

hi bro!

i'm not a pundit, but its just a simple calculation from a junior blogger who trying to steal the limelight of Malaysian..

well, in my opinion Manikumar has more strength with the turnouts of Anwar, Tuk Guru Nik Aziz, Karpal, Prof Rama and much more...

some more the win Arumugam as independent candidate in last GE was because he promised to defect to PKR if won the seat... if so, the independent candidates are more functioning to divide the BN's vote... if PKR get the same amount of votes as last election and BN votes steal by independent candidates, sure the majority is increasing..

while in Bukit Gantang, Nizar succeeded to create sympathy among th voters attacking "back door BN goevernment" of Perak.. he can deliver much this time..

Kamal said...

Yes! Pakatan win 2-1 is the result

Anonymous said...

the candidate agents must make sure the the boxes are escorted by the Pakatan rep to the counting center.

Have guards around the counting center to ensure no additional boxes are taken in from the rear of the building. Check rooms located besides the counting center for ballot boxes. In the midst of excitement and distraction created on purpose, boxes are brought in.

Follow EC official at the counting center when one of them leave the counting hall prior to counting and during counting, who are they reporting to??

Chander said...

I hope for 3-0 win by PR. Get BN out from Malaysia.

jonathan ong said...

I sincerely hope democracy will be the ultimate winner in this tug-of-war.

The Pakatan is our only hope for a better Malaysia now since the BN has proven they have done more damage than good in the past few decades

al-Balingi said...

Salam Kemenangan,

*Whatever it is bro, BN trailed by Pakatan Rakyat 4-1, a daunting task for them to level the score.

* There is no comeback this time surely.

* And a fresh elections needed for the Perakians.

townguy said...

wow, accurate prediction on the win, but only the majority win is not that accurate.

Bole jadi penganalisis politic ni ,haha.

Basuh Baju said...

so your predictions hit the jackpot. haha good job!

vasantarao appalasamy said...

let me tel you that if there are not any foulplays in the by-elections, sure Pakatan Rakyat able to get the majority!